De Graafschap – Almere City FC

Model: TIPPSH

De Graafschap vs Almere City FC

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.43
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 29, 2026 6:30 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 4
StartStarted 5d 8h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.59% · n=2341
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.70% · n=209
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 5d 10h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is De Graafschap. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: De GraafschapGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.184 | A: 0.081

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Balanced

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

27/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.28First seen
Current2.43Now
Max odds2.43Highest point
Min odds2.23Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

De GraafschapHOME
VS
Almere City FCAWAY
LLLDL
Recent form
WWWDL
Avg goals scored
1.20
2.20
Defensive weakness
3.40
1.40
Shots on target for
3.40
5.40
SoT conceded pressure
4.80
5.60
Home splitL-L-L-W-D1.80 scored / 3.40 conceded
Away splitW-W-D-L-L1.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.43. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -0.70% based on n=209 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Netherlands Eerste Divisie (nl). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.43
V2 BandLOWROI 1.59% · n=2341
V4 BandNONEROI -0.70% · n=209
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 38.9% 7D: 26.1% 15D: 6.6% 30D: 8.5%
Model insight

De Graafschap – Almere City FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.43. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.59% across 2341 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.70% across 209 historical samples. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample402
Win Rate43.8%
Profit+10.54u
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Pick
1 @ 2.43
Kickoff
Ago 29, 2026 6:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.59% • n=2341
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-0.70% • n=209
Start
Started 5d 8h ago
Updated
Updated 5d 10h ago
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