Model: TIPPSH

Ntugasaze FC vs Maroons

PREDICTION

@ 2.35

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffSet 02, 2026 5:00 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 3

StartStarted 4h 17m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.59% · n=2341

V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.70% · n=209

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 6h 19m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ntugasaze FC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Ntugasaze FCGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.071 | A: -0.024

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

26/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.29First seen

Current2.35Now

Max odds2.35Highest point

Min odds2.29Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Ntugasaze FCHOME

MaroonsAWAY

LLWWW

Recent form

WLWDL

Avg goals scored

1.60

1.80

Defensive weakness

1.00

1.60

Shots on target for

6.00

3.20

SoT conceded pressure

4.20

5.40

Home splitL-W-D-W-W1.60 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitW-W-D-W-L1.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.35. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -0.70% based on n=209 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uganda Premier League (ug). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.35

V2 BandLOWROI 1.59% · n=2341

V4 BandNONEROI -0.70% · n=209

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Ntugasaze FC's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -9.2% 7D: -10.2% 15D: 12.0% 30D: 4.4%

Model insight

Ntugasaze FC – Maroons Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.35. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.59% across 2341 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.70% across 209 historical samples. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample507

Win Rate44.2%

Profit+2.18u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Carl Zeiss Jena - VSG Altglienicke	2.20	1.04%
LOSS	JBK - Huima/Urho	2.13	1.04%
LOSS	Kagoshima United - Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	2.20	1.31%
LOSS	FC Gifu - Tokushima Vortis	2.48	1.59%
LOSS	Volos NFC - Kalamata	2.15	1.31%
WIN	UD Logrones - CD Extremadura	2.21	1.31%
WIN	Atletico San Luis (W) - Atlas (W)	2.14	1.04%
WIN	Osasuna - Getafe	2.27	1.59%

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Pick

1 @ 2.35

Kickoff

Set 02, 2026 5:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.59% • n=2341

Confidence V4

CONF V4: NONE

Exp. ROI V4

-0.70% • n=209

Start

Started 4h 17m ago

Updated

Updated 6h 19m ago