Grosseto – FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Model: TIPPSH

Grosseto vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.40
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 14, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 3
StartStarted 23h 18m ago
V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 13.35% · n=48
V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 13.35% · n=48
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 1h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Grosseto. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: GrossetoGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.105 | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

85/100
Excellent value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.30First seen
Current3.30Now
Max odds3.30Highest point
Min odds2.30Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

GrossetoHOME
VS
FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937AWAY
LWDDL
Recent form
WLLLD
Avg goals scored
1.80
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.80
1.60
Shots on target for
4.40
2.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
4.80
Home splitL-W-D-L-L2.00 scored / 2.20 conceded
Away splitW-L-L1.00 scored / 1.33 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.40. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 13.35% based on n=48 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Cup (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.40
V2 BandELITEROI 13.35% · n=48
V4 BandELITEROI 13.35% · n=48
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market prices Grosseto as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The selection falls within a stronger historical confidence range, which makes the higher price more interesting. Grosseto is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: -21.2% 7D: 3.0% 15D: 10.4% 30D: 8.8%
Model insight

Grosseto – FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.40. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 13.35% and 13.35%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample8
Win Rate50.0%
Profit+5.54u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINStirling - Cove Rangers3.388.08%
LOSSSochaux - St Etienne3.628.08%
WINRodina Moscow - Rubin Kazan3.308.08%
LOSSExeter - Bristol City3.268.08%
WINSK Olympia Rajecko - Zdar nad Sazavou3.3013.35%
WINSporting Kansas City II - Minnesota United FC II3.5613.35%
LOSSCriciuma U20 - Palmeiras U203.5813.35%
LOSSFC Bejaia (W) - ASE Alger Centre (W)3.249.53%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
JK Trans Narva - Paide Linnameeskond13.3013.35%16 Aug 16:00
FK Arsenal - Buducnost Podgorica13.368.08%16 Aug 20:00
Pick
1 @ 3.40
Kickoff
Ago 14, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: ELITE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 13.35% • n=48
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
13.35% • n=48
Start
Started 23h 18m ago
Updated
Updated 1d 1h ago
Torna in alto