Grosseto vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Grosseto. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: GrossetoGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.105 | A: —Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.40. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 13.35% based on n=48 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Cup (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.
AI Match Insight
The market prices Grosseto as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The selection falls within a stronger historical confidence range, which makes the higher price more interesting. Grosseto is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Grosseto – FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Stirling - Cove Rangers | 3.38 | 8.08% |
| LOSS | Sochaux - St Etienne | 3.62 | 8.08% |
| WIN | Rodina Moscow - Rubin Kazan | 3.30 | 8.08% |
| LOSS | Exeter - Bristol City | 3.26 | 8.08% |
| WIN | SK Olympia Rajecko - Zdar nad Sazavou | 3.30 | 13.35% |
| WIN | Sporting Kansas City II - Minnesota United FC II | 3.56 | 13.35% |
| LOSS | Criciuma U20 - Palmeiras U20 | 3.58 | 13.35% |
| LOSS | FC Bejaia (W) - ASE Alger Centre (W) | 3.24 | 9.53% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JK Trans Narva - Paide Linnameeskond | 1 | 3.30 | 13.35% | 16 Aug 16:00 |
| FK Arsenal - Buducnost Podgorica | 1 | 3.36 | 8.08% | 16 Aug 20:00 |