Model: TIPPSA

Malvern City vs Essendon Royals

PREDICTION

@ 2.68

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffGiu 13, 2026 11:00 AM

ResultWIN2 - 4

StartStarted 49d 3h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.59% · n=214

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 49d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Essendon Royals. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Essendon RoyalsGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

45/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.73First seen

Current2.71Now

Max odds3.00Highest point

Min odds2.52Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Malvern CityHOME

Essendon RoyalsAWAY

LLLWW

Recent form

WWLWW

Avg goals scored

1.20

4.00

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.00

Shots on target for

3.40

6.80

SoT conceded pressure

2.40

5.00

Home splitL-L-W-W-L1.80 scored / 2.60 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-L-W1.20 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.68. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.59% based on n=214 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia Victoria Premier League 2 (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.68

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.59% · n=214

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Essendon Royals. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Essendon Royals's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 12.3% 7D: -4.1% 15D: -3.1% 30D: 12.7%

Model insight

Malvern City – Essendon Royals Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.68. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.59% across 214 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample114

Win Rate38.6%

Profit+0.81u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Panama U20 - Canada U20	2.71	4.13%
LOSS	Gremio - Fluminense	2.54	3.43%
LOSS	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	2.47	3.59%
LOSS	Kalmar FF - Mjällby AIF	2.71	4.13%
LOSS	Kalmar FF - Malmo FF	2.82	4.96%
WIN	IFK Varnamo - Ljungskile	2.54	3.59%
WIN	Lipno Steszew - Unia Swarzedz	2.44	4.13%
WIN	KF Drita - FK Kauno Zalgiris	2.85	4.96%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN	2	2.70	3.31%	30 Apr 02:30

Pick

2 @ 2.68

Kickoff

Giu 13, 2026 11:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.59% • n=214

Start

Started 49d 3h ago

Updated

Updated 49d 5h ago