Model: TIPPSA

Marica RJ vs XV Piracicaba

PREDICTION

@ 2.02

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 17, 2026 12:00 AM

ResultWIN1 - 2

StartStarted 61d 13h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.58% · n=409

V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.22% · n=185

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 61d 16h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is XV Piracicaba. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: XV Piracicaba

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

21/100

Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.00First seen

Current2.02Now

Max odds2.02Highest point

Min odds2.00Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Marica RJHOME

XV PiracicabaAWAY

LWLWL

Recent form

WWDWD

Avg goals scored

0.60

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.20

0.60

Shots on target for

4.40

SoT conceded pressure

5.40

2.40

Home splitL-W-L-W-D1.00 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitW-D-W-D1.50 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.02. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.22% based on n=185 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie D (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.02

V2 BandLOWROI 0.58% · n=409

V4 BandNONEROI -1.22% · n=185

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: 11.8% 7D: 15.0% 15D: 2.7% 30D: 0.1%

Model insight

Marica RJ – XV Piracicaba Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.02. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.58% across 409 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -1.22% across 185 historical samples. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample79

Win Rate53.2%

Profit+8.27u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Torpedo Kutaisi - Zira IK	2.15	1.21%
WIN	Radomiak Radom - Hapoel Beer Sheva	2.04	1.21%
LOSS	Fortaleza U20 - Vasco da Gama U20	2.11	1.21%
WIN	Holland Park Hawks - Redlands United	2.03	1.21%
WIN	IFK Mariehamn - IF Gnistan	2.03	1.21%
LOSS	Nunawading - Keilor Park	2.25	0.84%
WIN	MyPa - PPJ	2.06	1.76%
LOSS	Odense BK II (W) - BSF (W)	2.02	1.76%

Pick

2 @ 2.02

Kickoff

Mag 17, 2026 12:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 0.58% • n=409

Confidence V4

CONF V4: NONE

Exp. ROI V4

-1.22% • n=185

Start

Started 61d 13h ago

Updated

Updated 61d 16h ago