Nasaf Qarshi – Qizilqum Zarafshon

Model: TIPPSH

Nasaf Qarshi vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.64
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 28, 2026 7:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 11h 20m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 22h 42m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nasaf Qarshi. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nasaf QarshiGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.051 | A: -0.104

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

2/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.71First seen
Current1.64Now
Max odds1.71Highest point
Min odds1.62Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nasaf QarshiHOME
VS
Qizilqum ZarafshonAWAY
WDWWD
Recent form
LDLLD
Avg goals scored
2.00
0.40
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.00
Shots on target for
6.40
2.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
4.80
Home splitW-D-W-W-D2.40 scored / 0.40 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-W-L0.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.64. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -9.21% based on n=1970 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uzbekistan PFL (uz). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.64
V2 BandNONEROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Market expectations and recent results both point toward Nasaf Qarshi as the more reliable side. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Nasaf Qarshi is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -17.0% 7D: -1.8% 15D: 11.1% 30D: 15.6%
Model insight

Nasaf Qarshi – Qizilqum Zarafshon Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.64. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -9.21% across 1970 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample257
Win Rate56.8%
Profit-11.74u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSCrusaders - Newington FC1.65-9.21%
LOSSClub Guarani Reserves - Sportivo Luqueno Reserves1.72-10.11%
LOSSHonduras U20 - Jamaica U201.63-9.21%
LOSSKA Akureyri - Thor Akureyri1.75-7.35%
LOSSSan Diego Wave (W) - Reign FC (W)1.62-7.35%
LOSSCA San Miguel - Acassuso1.74-9.21%
WINTobol Kostanay - FK Atyrau1.71-4.66%
WINPPJ U21 - Atlantis U211.67-9.21%
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Pick
1 @ 1.64
Kickoff
Lug 28, 2026 7:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -9.21% • n=1970
Start
Started 11h 20m ago
Updated
Updated 22h 42m ago
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