Model: TIPPSH

Neftchi Fergana vs Pakhtakor Tashkent

PREDICTION

@ 1.85

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 29, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultWIN1 - 0

StartStarted 17h 29m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 21h 19m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Neftchi Fergana. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Neftchi FerganaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.082 | A: 0.078

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

26/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.05First seen

Current1.85Now

Max odds2.06Highest point

Min odds1.85Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Neftchi FerganaHOME

Pakhtakor TashkentAWAY

WWLWW

Recent form

LDDWW

Avg goals scored

2.60

1.20

Defensive weakness

0.80

0.60

Shots on target for

7.20

3.60

SoT conceded pressure

2.80

4.20

Home splitW-W-W-D-W2.40 scored / 0.40 conceded

Away splitL-D-W-D-D0.80 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.85. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uzbekistan Cup (uz). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.85

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Neftchi Fergana. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Neftchi Fergana is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 1.6% 7D: 21.8% 15D: 15.5% 30D: 11.9%

Model insight

Neftchi Fergana – Pakhtakor Tashkent Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.85. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample731

Win Rate50.3%

Profit-24.70u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Balzan FC - Gzira United	2.04	1.04%
WIN	Varzim - Trofense	1.87	1.04%
WIN	AEK Larnaca - Apoel Nicosia	1.87	1.04%
LOSS	Pachuca U21 - Chivas Guadalajara U21	1.93	1.31%
LOSS	Veertien Mie - Vonds Ichihara	2.00	1.04%
WIN	Grange Thistle - Moreton City Excelsior B	1.75	1.04%
WIN	Tigres UANL (W) - Pachuca (W)	1.81	1.04%
LOSS	Marist FC - Ghupo FC	2.02	1.31%

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Pick

1 @ 1.85

Kickoff

Ago 29, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Started 17h 29m ago

Updated

Updated 21h 19m ago