Model: TIPPSH

Varzim vs Trofense

PREDICTION

@ 1.87

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 29, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultWIN5 - 1

StartStarted 15h 28m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 18h 4m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Varzim. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: VarzimGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.141 | A: -0.052

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

27/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.85First seen

Current1.87Now

Max odds1.87Highest point

Min odds1.80Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

VarzimHOME

TrofenseAWAY

WWWWD

Recent form

LWLLL

Avg goals scored

2.60

0.40

Defensive weakness

0.80

1.80

Shots on target for

5.00

1.80

SoT conceded pressure

3.00

4.80

Home splitW-W-D-D-L2.20 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitL-L-D-L-L0.40 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.87. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Cup (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.87

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Varzim a useful statistical edge. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Varzim's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 3.3% 7D: 17.7% 15D: 18.8% 30D: 11.8%

Model insight

Varzim – Trofense Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.87. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample754

Win Rate50.3%

Profit-24.43u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Balzan FC - Gzira United	2.04	1.04%
WIN	AEK Larnaca - Apoel Nicosia	1.87	1.04%
LOSS	Diyala FC - Al Jolan SC	2.11	1.04%
LOSS	Pachuca U21 - Chivas Guadalajara U21	1.93	1.31%
WIN	Neftchi Fergana - Pakhtakor Tashkent	1.85	1.04%
LOSS	Veertien Mie - Vonds Ichihara	2.00	1.04%
WIN	Grange Thistle - Moreton City Excelsior B	1.75	1.04%
WIN	Tigres UANL (W) - Pachuca (W)	1.81	1.04%

Active Similar Predictions

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Alajuelense (W) - Saprissa (W)	1	1.75	1.04%	20 Aug 04:00
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LASK Linz - Celtic	1	1.88	1.04%	25 Aug 21:00
Slavia Prague B - Opava	1	1.88	1.04%	30 Aug 10:15

Pick

1 @ 1.87

Kickoff

Ago 29, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Started 15h 28m ago

Updated

Updated 18h 4m ago