Model: TIPPSH

Nepean FC vs Inner West Hawks

PREDICTION

@ 2.07

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 29, 2026 2:00 PM

ResultLOSS2 - 2

StartStarted 44d 9h ago

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.72% · n=285

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.72% · n=285

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 44d 11h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nepean FC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nepean FC

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

49/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.20First seen

Current2.20Now

Max odds2.35Highest point

Min odds2.20Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nepean FCHOME

Inner West HawksAWAY

DWWLD

Recent form

DWLLL

Avg goals scored

2.20

1.20

Defensive weakness

2.00

1.80

Shots on target for

9.20

3.40

SoT conceded pressure

7.40

9.60

Home splitD-W-L-L-D1.60 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitD-L-L-L-W2.20 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.07. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.72% based on n=285 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Australia New South Wales League 2 (au). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.07

V2 BandHIGHROI 6.72% · n=285

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.72% · n=285

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. The confidence band strengthens the case for the pick beyond the basic market price. Nepean FC has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 19.3% 7D: 32.7% 15D: 25.6% 30D: 7.3%

Model insight

Nepean FC – Inner West Hawks Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.07. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 6.72% and 6.72%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample20

Win Rate50.0%

Profit+0.38u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Botafogo SP - Avai	1.96	6.72%
WIN	Belgium - Senegal	2.12	6.72%
LOSS	CRB - Fortaleza	2.17	6.72%
WIN	University NSW U20 - St George Saints U20	1.96	6.72%
WIN	Jincheon HR - Gijang United	1.90	6.72%
LOSS	KTP - FC Haka	2.12	6.72%
WIN	Keflavik - Thor Akureyri	1.82	6.72%
WIN	Henan U20 - Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic U20	2.04	6.72%

Pick

1 @ 2.07

Kickoff

Mag 29, 2026 2:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 6.72% • n=285

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.72% • n=285

Start

Started 44d 9h ago

Updated

Updated 44d 11h ago