Penarol Reserves – Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

Model: TIPPSH

Penarol Reserves vs Deportivo Maldonado Reserves

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.88
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 25, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 46d 20h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 46d 22h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Penarol Reserves. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Penarol Reserves

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

27/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.70First seen
Current1.88Now
Max odds2.08Highest point
Min odds1.70Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Penarol ReservesHOME
VS
Deportivo Maldonado ReservesAWAY
WLDLW
Recent form
LDWLL
Avg goals scored
0.60
1.00
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.40
Shots on target for
4.40
4.60
SoT conceded pressure
2.60
4.20
Home splitW-L-D-W-W1.00 scored / 0.40 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-L-W1.00 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.88. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uruguay Reserve League (uy). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.88
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Penarol Reserves a useful statistical edge. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 28.0% 7D: 33.9% 15D: 26.6% 30D: 8.2%
Model insight

Penarol Reserves – Deportivo Maldonado Reserves Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.88. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample288
Win Rate46.5%
Profit-28.73u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINArgentino Merlo - Argentino Quilmes2.101.04%
LOSSVikingur Reykjavik (W) - IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)1.971.04%
WINWarta Sieradz - LKS Lodz II2.051.04%
WINSlovacko - FC Zorya Lugansk1.961.31%
WINEC Juventude - Vila Nova1.841.04%
LOSSHwaseong FC - Paju Frontier FC1.931.04%
LOSSGimcheon Sangmu FC - Bucheon2.061.04%
LOSSDeportivo Maldonado - Albion FC2.101.04%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Racing Club Reserves11.991.31%05 Jul 16:00
Deportivo Moron - Deportivo Madryn11.951.04%11 Jul 20:00
Houston Dynamo II - St Louis City II11.891.31%12 Jul 01:00
Los Angeles FC II - Portland Timbers II12.071.04%12 Jul 04:00
GAIS - Elfsborg11.951.04%12 Jul 16:30
Pick
1 @ 1.88
Kickoff
Mag 25, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 46d 20h ago
Updated
Updated 46d 22h ago
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