Perugia – Vis Pesaro

Model: TIPPSH

Perugia vs Vis Pesaro

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.95
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 15, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 3h 41m
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 10m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Perugia. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: PerugiaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.073 | A: -0.123

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

36/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.20First seen
Current2.10Now
Max odds2.20Highest point
Min odds2.10Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

PerugiaHOME
VS
Vis PesaroAWAY
DDLDD
Recent form
WLLLD
Avg goals scored
1.20
0.80
Defensive weakness
1.40
3.00
Shots on target for
2.40
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
4.00
8.60
Home splitD-L-D1.00 scored / 1.33 conceded
Away splitW-L-L-D-L0.60 scored / 2.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.95. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Cup (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.95
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -25.2% 7D: -8.0% 15D: 8.0% 30D: 6.5%
Model insight

Perugia – Vis Pesaro Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.95. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.37% and 3.37%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample360
Win Rate50.3%
Profit-7.72u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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WINKairat Almaty (W) - Kaisar Kyzylorda (W)1.963.37%
WINCruzeiro - Mirassol1.763.37%
WINBFC Daugavpils - Tukums 20001.753.37%
LOSSRennes - Brentford2.063.37%
WINPorthmadog - Rhyl2.103.37%
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Pick
1 @ 1.95
Kickoff
Ago 15, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.37% • n=795
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.37% • n=795
Start
Starts in 3h 41m
Updated
Updated 10m ago
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