Model: TIPPSA
Portimonense – Chaves
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.65
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 03, 2026 2:00 PM
ResultLOSS3 - 2
StartStarted 23d 11h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.44% · n=196
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.44% · n=196
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 23d 14h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Portimonense | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-L-W-L-W | L-W-L-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Home/Away form | W-W (home) | L-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 3.00 scored / 2.00 conceded | 1.67 scored / 3.33 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.20 for / 5.20 against | 5.20 for / 4.40 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 6.50 for / 5.50 against (home) | 5.33 for / 5.33 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Chaves's attacking profile.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.41First seen
Current2.65Now
Max odds2.68Highest point
Min odds2.41Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Portimonense – Chaves Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.65. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.44% and 4.44%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample103
Win Rate38.8%
Profit+0.27u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Cadiz - Leganes | 2.86 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | NK Radomlje - NS Mura | 2.55 | 4.13% |
| WIN | Helsingborg - Varbergs BoIS FC | 2.63 | 4.13% |
| LOSS | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng - Dalian Young Boy | 2.88 | 4.96% |
| WIN | Guayaquil City - Orense | 2.48 | 3.59% |
| WIN | Almagro - San Martin SJ | 2.62 | 4.44% |
| WIN | Polonia Bytom - Slask Wroclaw | 2.57 | 3.31% |
| WIN | FH Hafnarfjordur - KA Akureyri | 2.54 | 4.44% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retro FC Brasil - America RN | 2 | 2.70 | 3.31% | 30 Apr 02:30 |
Pick
2 @ 2.65
Kickoff
Mag 03, 2026 2:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.44% • n=196
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.44% • n=196
Start
Started 23d 11h ago
Updated
Updated 23d 14h ago