Model: TIPPSH

Tepatitlan FC vs Jaiba Brava

PREDICTION

@ 1.90

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 17, 2026 5:00 AM

ResultWIN1 - 0

StartStarted 55d 11h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.30% · n=590

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.30% · n=590

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 56d 12h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Tepatitlan FC. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Tepatitlan FC

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

31/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.94First seen

Current1.90Now

Max odds1.95Highest point

Min odds1.90Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Tepatitlan FCHOME

Jaiba BravaAWAY

WDDDW

Recent form

LDDWW

Avg goals scored

1.00

Defensive weakness

0.40

0.80

Shots on target for

3.20

1.60

SoT conceded pressure

1.40

5.40

Home splitW-D-W-W1.50 scored / 0.25 conceded

Away splitL-D-W-W1.25 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.90. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.30% based on n=590 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Mexico Liga de Expansion (mx). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.90

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.30% · n=590

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.30% · n=590

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Tepatitlan FC's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 2.8% 7D: -1.5% 15D: -12.5% 30D: -2.3%

Model insight

Tepatitlan FC – Jaiba Brava Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.90. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.30% and 2.30%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample308

Win Rate50.6%

Profit-6.77u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Wexford FC - Kerry FC	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Alamein FC (W) - Preston Lions (W)	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Houston FC - Hill Country Lobos	1.85	3.37%
WIN	Beijing Guoan - Shandong Taishan	1.78	3.37%
WIN	FK Jelgava - SC Grobinas	2.05	3.37%
WIN	Cuiaba - America MG	2.13	3.37%
LOSS	Jecheon Citizen - Gijang United	1.88	3.37%
WIN	Internacional U20 - Gremio U20	1.99	3.37%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz	1	1.98	4.86%	09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina	1	1.93	2.30%	10 May 19:00

Pick

1 @ 1.90

Kickoff

Mag 17, 2026 5:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.30% • n=590

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

2.30% • n=590

Start

Started 55d 11h ago

Updated

Updated 56d 12h ago