Toluca – Austin FC

Model: TIPPSH

Toluca vs Austin FC

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.69
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 27, 2026 4:30 AM
ResultWIN2 - 0
StartStarted 1d ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 2h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Toluca. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: TolucaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.023 | A: 0.036

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Balanced

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

3/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.54First seen
Current1.69Now
Max odds1.80Highest point
Min odds1.52Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

TolucaHOME
VS
Austin FCAWAY
WWDWL
Recent form
LDWLD
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.00
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.40
Shots on target for
4.60
3.60
SoT conceded pressure
2.80
5.80
Home splitW-W-L-W-W2.20 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitL-W-D-L-L0.60 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.69. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -9.21% based on n=1970 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Leagues Cup (us). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.69
V2 BandNONEROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The short price is supported by recent form data, with Toluca showing a clearer performance edge. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Toluca has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 16.0% 7D: 29.7% 15D: 6.0% 30D: 8.0%
Model insight

Toluca – Austin FC Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.69. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -9.21% across 1970 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample450
Win Rate61.1%
Profit+11.22u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSHK Kopavogur (W) - Keflavik (W)1.65-9.21%
WINJuventud De Las Piedras - Club Oriental1.70-9.21%
LOSSBorneo FC - Madura United1.72-9.21%
LOSSRana FK - Follo1.71-9.21%
WINMaccabi Netanya U19 - Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv U191.68-9.21%
WINSport Recife - America MG1.67-9.21%
LOSSCoventry U21 - Fleetwood Town U211.63-4.66%
WINFK Andijan - Xorazm Urganch1.67-7.35%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Logan Lightning - Capalaba FC11.63-7.35%05 Jun 12:30
Guijuelo - CDA Palencia11.70-9.21%07 Jun 18:00
Shanghai Shenhua - Shandong Taishan11.69-9.21%28 Aug 13:35
FC Helsingor - Ishoj11.64-9.21%28 Aug 19:00
Southern District - Kowloon City11.70-7.35%29 Aug 10:00
Girona - Las Palmas11.69-9.21%29 Aug 21:30
Brooklyn FC - Sporting JAX11.67-7.35%30 Aug 01:00
Houston Dynamo - San Jose Earthquakes11.72-9.21%30 Aug 02:30
Pick
1 @ 1.69
Kickoff
Ago 27, 2026 4:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -9.21% • n=1970
Start
Started 1d ago
Updated
Updated 1d 2h ago
Torna in alto