Model: TIPPSA

Vis Pesaro vs Perugia

PREDICTION

@ 2.12

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 30, 2026 11:00 PM

ResultLOSS2 - 2

StartStarted 1h 9m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 3h 17m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Perugia. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: PerugiaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.015 | A: -0.048

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

30/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.55First seen

Current2.12Now

Max odds2.55Highest point

Min odds2.10Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Vis PesaroHOME

PerugiaAWAY

LWWLL

Recent form

WLDDL

Avg goals scored

0.80

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.00

Shots on target for

2.20

3.20

SoT conceded pressure

6.80

4.00

Home splitL-L-W2.00 scored / 1.67 conceded

Away splitD-D1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.12. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.21% based on n=228 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Group B (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.12

V2 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Perugia has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 2.7% 7D: 20.0% 15D: 7.9% 30D: 7.8%

Model insight

Vis Pesaro – Perugia Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.12. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.21% and 1.21%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample141

Win Rate51.1%

Profit+12.10u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Widzew Lodz - Lech Poznan	2.18	1.21%
WIN	Rodina Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2.01	1.76%
WIN	Darmstadt - Hannover 96	2.17	1.76%
WIN	Lokomotiv Moscow - Dinamo Moscow	2.20	1.21%
LOSS	Radomiak Radom - Cracovia Krakow	2.34	0.84%
WIN	East Coast Bays - Auckland United FC	2.05	1.21%
WIN	HNK Rijeka - Midtjylland	2.27	0.84%
LOSS	FC Naples - Union Omaha	2.25	0.84%

Pick

2 @ 2.12

Kickoff

Ago 30, 2026 11:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.21% • n=228

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.21% • n=228

Start

Started 1h 9m ago

Updated

Updated 3h 17m ago