Model: TIPPSH

Celta Fortuna vs Lugo

PREDICTION

@ 1.80

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 17, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 1

StartStarted 55d 16h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.30% · n=590

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.30% · n=590

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 57d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Celta Fortuna. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Celta Fortuna

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

30/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.73First seen

Current1.80Now

Max odds1.80Highest point

Min odds1.73Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Celta FortunaHOME

LugoAWAY

LWLDW

Recent form

WLWLD

Avg goals scored

1.60

0.80

Defensive weakness

1.00

1.20

Shots on target for

5.40

2.60

SoT conceded pressure

4.00

5.20

Home splitL-L-W1.00 scored / 0.67 conceded

Away splitW-W-L-L1.25 scored / 1.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.80. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.30% based on n=590 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.80

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.30% · n=590

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.30% · n=590

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Celta Fortuna has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 2.8% 7D: -1.5% 15D: -11.9% 30D: -2.3%

Model insight

Celta Fortuna – Lugo Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.80. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.30% and 2.30%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample255

Win Rate53.3%

Profit+3.96u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Wexford FC - Kerry FC	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Alamein FC (W) - Preston Lions (W)	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Houston FC - Hill Country Lobos	1.85	3.37%
WIN	Beijing Guoan - Shandong Taishan	1.78	3.37%
WIN	FK Jelgava - SC Grobinas	2.05	3.37%
LOSS	Jecheon Citizen - Gijang United	1.88	3.37%
WIN	Internacional U20 - Gremio U20	1.99	3.37%
LOSS	Paysandu - Santa Cruz FC	1.81	3.37%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz	1	1.98	4.86%	09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina	1	1.93	2.30%	10 May 19:00

Pick

1 @ 1.80

Kickoff

Mag 17, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.30% • n=590

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

2.30% • n=590

Start

Started 55d 16h ago

Updated

Updated 57d 5h ago