Model: TIPPSA
Polonia Lidzbark – Stomil Olsztyn
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.34
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 30, 2026 10:30 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 2d 22h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.84% · n=717
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.09% · n=286
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 3d ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Polonia Lidzbark | Stomil Olsztyn |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-W-W-W | D-W-W-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 2.75 | 2.40 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Home/Away form | D-W (home) | D-W-W (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 2.50 scored / 1.00 conceded | 2.67 scored / 1.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 5.25 for / 4.00 against | 6.80 for / 3.00 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.50 for / 2.00 against (home) | 8.67 for / 2.67 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The price and recent metrics both point to a relatively open contest. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Stomil Olsztyn's attacking profile.
Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 29.3%
7D: 15.2%
15D: 23.3%
30D: 9.2%
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.05First seen
Current2.34Now
Max odds2.35Highest point
Min odds2.05Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Polonia Lidzbark – Stomil Olsztyn Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.34. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.84% across 717 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -2.09% across 286 historical samples. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample70
Win Rate41.4%
Profit-3.78u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Academia Deportiva Cantolao - CD Universidad San Martin | 2.35 | 0.84% |
| LOSS | Uniao Rondonopolis - Mixto | 2.38 | 0.84% |
| LOSS | TPS - VPS Vaasa | 2.48 | 0.84% |
| WIN | GIF Sundsvall - Sandvikens IF | 2.35 | 0.84% |
| WIN | Ishoj - VSK Arhus | 2.30 | 0.84% |
| LOSS | Cerezo Osaka - FC Tokyo | 2.46 | 0.84% |
| LOSS | NK Primorje Ajdovscina - NK Nafta 1903 | 2.55 | 0.84% |
| WIN | Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves - Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic | 2.26 | 0.84% |
Pick
2 @ 2.34
Kickoff
Mag 30, 2026 10:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 0.84% • n=717
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-2.09% • n=286
Start
Started 2d 22h ago
Updated
Updated 3d ago