Model: TIPPSH

Criciuma vs Vila Nova

PREDICTION

@ 1.76

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 18, 2026 11:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 4d 19h

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 9m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Criciuma. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Criciuma

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

26/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CriciumaHOME

Vila NovaAWAY

WWWWD

Recent form

LWLWL

Avg goals scored

1.20

1.40

Defensive weakness

0.40

1.60

Shots on target for

4.40

3.20

SoT conceded pressure

3.80

5.40

Home splitW-W-D-W-D1.00 scored / 0.40 conceded

Away splitL-L-L-W-W0.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.76. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.76

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Criciuma has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -100.0% 7D: 12.6% 15D: 24.2% 30D: 16.1%

Model insight

Criciuma – Vila Nova Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.76. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. Odds history is still limited because this prediction has only recently appeared in the monitored bookmaker panel. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample216

Win Rate44.4%

Profit-35.99u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	La Luz - Tacuarembo	1.95	1.04%
WIN	GAIS - Elfsborg	1.95	1.04%
WIN	Houston Dynamo II - St Louis City II	1.89	1.31%
LOSS	Deportivo Moron - Deportivo Madryn	1.95	1.04%
LOSS	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) - IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	1.97	1.04%
WIN	Slovacko - FC Zorya Lugansk	1.96	1.31%
WIN	EC Juventude - Vila Nova	1.84	1.04%
LOSS	Hwaseong FC - Paju Frontier FC	1.93	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 1.76

Kickoff

Lug 18, 2026 11:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Starts in 4d 19h

Updated

Updated 9m ago