Model: TIPPSH

Sao Bernardo SP vs Avai

PREDICTION

@ 1.96

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 18, 2026 2:00 AM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 4d 1h

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 9m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Sao Bernardo SP. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Sao Bernardo SP

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

29/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.94First seen

Current1.96Now

Max odds1.96Highest point

Min odds1.94Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Sao Bernardo SPHOME

AvaiAWAY

DLLLD

Recent form

WLLWL

Avg goals scored

0.60

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.20

1.40

Shots on target for

3.60

2.60

SoT conceded pressure

3.00

5.80

Home splitD-L-D-D-D0.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-L-L-L-L0.80 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.96. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.96

V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Sao Bernardo SP's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -6.8% 7D: 8.9% 15D: 24.2% 30D: 16.8%

Model insight

Sao Bernardo SP – Avai Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.96. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample337

Win Rate47.5%

Profit-22.01u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	La Luz - Tacuarembo	1.95	1.04%
WIN	Botafogo PB - AD Confianca	2.02	1.31%
LOSS	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) - Northern Tigers FC (W)	2.20	1.04%
WIN	GAIS - Elfsborg	1.95	1.04%
LOSS	Los Angeles FC II - Portland Timbers II	2.07	1.04%
WIN	Houston Dynamo II - St Louis City II	1.89	1.31%
WIN	Argentino Merlo - Argentino Quilmes	2.10	1.04%
LOSS	Deportivo Moron - Deportivo Madryn	1.95	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 1.96

Kickoff

Lug 18, 2026 2:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.31% • n=2537

Start

Starts in 4d 1h

Updated

Updated 9m ago