Model: TIPPSH

Excursionistas vs Argentino Quilmes

PREDICTION

@ 1.77

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 18, 2026 10:00 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 0

StartStarted 9h 6m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 12h 28m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Excursionistas. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Excursionistas

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

25/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.73First seen

Current1.77Now

Max odds1.77Highest point

Min odds1.73Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

ExcursionistasHOME

Argentino QuilmesAWAY

DWLLW

Recent form

DWLLD

Avg goals scored

1.80

0.40

Defensive weakness

1.00

1.40

Shots on target for

2.80

1.20

SoT conceded pressure

2.20

3.20

Home splitD-L-W-D-W1.80 scored / 0.60 conceded

Away splitD-L-D-W-W1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.77. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Argentina Primera B Metropolitana (ar). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.77

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Excursionistas has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 17.5% 7D: 10.3% 15D: 6.8% 30D: 18.8%

Model insight

Excursionistas – Argentino Quilmes Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.77. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample244

Win Rate45.5%

Profit-35.83u

Historical Similar Predictions

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WIN	Flamengo SP U23 - Matonense U23	1.75	1.04%
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WIN	JK Tallinna Kalev - JK Nomme United II	1.90	1.31%
LOSS	Vasco da Gama U20 - Botafogo RJ U20	1.85	1.04%
LOSS	South Melbourne U23 - Preston Lions U23	2.01	1.04%
LOSS	Inter Lions - Rydalmere Lions FC	1.92	1.31%
WIN	Itabirito U20 - Social FC MG U20	1.97	1.31%
WIN	Zrinjski Mostar - HSK Posusje	1.97	1.31%

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Pick

1 @ 1.77

Kickoff

Lug 18, 2026 10:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Start

Started 9h 6m ago

Updated

Updated 12h 28m ago