Girona vs CD Alaves
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Girona. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: GironaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.074 | A: 0.001Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.30. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.
AI Match Insight
The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Girona's attacking profile.
Girona – CD Alaves Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | CD Universidad San Martin - Carlos Manucci | 2.10 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | MMU - UITM Perlis | 2.26 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Dag & Red - Buxton | 2.54 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Green Gully U23 - Dandenong City U23 | 2.22 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Phoenix Rising FC - Hartford Athletic | 2.09 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Chester - Stoke U21 | 2.36 | 3.15% |
| WIN | Crusaders - Glenavon | 2.41 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | Lucerne - FC Thun | 2.31 | 2.49% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla Krakow - GKS Katowice | 1 | 2.38 | 2.49% | 26 Jul 20:15 |
| America MG - Goias | 1 | 2.54 | 2.49% | 26 Jul 23:30 |