Fortaleza – Botafogo SP

Model: TIPPSH

Fortaleza vs Botafogo SP

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.00
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 29, 2026 4:35 AM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 6h 35m ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.31% · n=2537
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 8h 52m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fortaleza. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FortalezaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.005 | A: 0.175

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

29/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.73First seen
Current1.99Now
Max odds2.10Highest point
Min odds1.73Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

FortalezaHOME
VS
Botafogo SPAWAY
WLWLW
Recent form
LWDDW
Avg goals scored
1.00
2.00
Defensive weakness
0.60
1.40
Shots on target for
4.20
3.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
4.40
Home splitW-W-W-W-L1.20 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitL-D-D-W-L0.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.00. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.31% based on n=2537 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.00
V2 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
V4 BandLOWROI 1.31% · n=2537
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

With no dominant recent form edge, the pick should be interpreted mainly through the model's historical profile. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -17.0% 7D: -1.8% 15D: 11.1% 30D: 16.1%
Model insight

Fortaleza – Botafogo SP Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.00. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.31% and 1.31%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample466
Win Rate48.3%
Profit-21.61u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSTamworth - Macclesfield1.861.31%
WINTonbridge Angels - Eastbourne Borough1.761.31%
WINUNAN Managua - Rancho Santana FC1.851.04%
LOSSNeftchi Fergana - Navbahor Namangan1.781.31%
LOSSPolice AC - Aryan FC1.901.04%
LOSSCA Tigre - Nacional De Football2.081.04%
LOSSCruzeiro - Botafogo1.801.04%
WINFuerte San Francisco Reserves - CD Platense Zacatecoluca Reserves2.011.31%
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Pick
1 @ 2.00
Kickoff
Lug 29, 2026 4:35 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.31% • n=2537
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.31% • n=2537
Start
Started 6h 35m ago
Updated
Updated 8h 52m ago
Torna in alto