Aberystwyth – Treowen Stars

Model: TIPPSH

Aberystwyth vs Treowen Stars

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.67
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 08, 2026 5:30 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 2
StartStarted 17h 37m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -7.35% · n=1010
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -7.35% · n=1010
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 19h 41m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Aberystwyth. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: AberystwythGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.027 | A: -0.092

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

3/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.50First seen
Current1.67Now
Max odds1.67Highest point
Min odds1.50Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AberystwythHOME
VS
Treowen StarsAWAY
LWDLD
Recent form
WLWL
Avg goals scored
1.80
2.00
Defensive weakness
1.80
2.75
Shots on target for
5.20
6.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
7.25
Home splitL-D1.50 scored / 2.00 conceded
Away splitW-L1.00 scored / 3.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.67. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -7.35% based on n=1010 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Championship South (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.67
V2 BandNONEROI -7.35% · n=1010
V4 BandNONEROI -7.35% · n=1010
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current price indicates market confidence, even if recent form does not show an overwhelming gap. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 7.9% 7D: 15.8% 15D: 5.4% 30D: 11.0%
Model insight

Aberystwyth – Treowen Stars Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.67. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -7.35% and -7.35%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample324
Win Rate61.1%
Profit+8.52u
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Pick
1 @ 1.67
Kickoff
Ago 08, 2026 5:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -7.35% • n=1010
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-7.35% • n=1010
Start
Started 17h 37m ago
Updated
Updated 19h 41m ago
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