Quilmes vs Almagro
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Quilmes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: QuilmesGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.078 | A: 0.095Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.69. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -8.30% based on n=180 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Argentina Nacional B (ar). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.
AI Match Insight
The market is strongly leaning toward Quilmes, but the statistical edge looks less pronounced. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Quilmes is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Quilmes – Almagro Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Penarol - Montevideo Wanderers | 1.71 | -9.21% |
| LOSS | Mylliem SC - Laitkor SC | 1.65 | -9.21% |
| LOSS | VJS Vantaa - PK Keski-Uusimaa | 1.71 | -7.35% |
| WIN | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic - Beijing Institute | 1.66 | -7.35% |
| WIN | Gornik Leczna - KKS 1925 Kalisz | 1.63 | -4.66% |
| WIN | GKS Tychy 71 - Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 1.69 | -9.21% |
| WIN | UNA Strassen - Victoria Rosport | 1.72 | -10.11% |
| WIN | Hammarby TFF - FC Arlanda | 1.63 | -7.35% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Lightning - Capalaba FC | 1 | 1.63 | -7.35% | 05 Jun 12:30 |
| Guijuelo - CDA Palencia | 1 | 1.70 | -9.21% | 07 Jun 18:00 |
| Shamrock Rovers - Dundalk | 1 | 1.66 | -4.66% | 07 Aug 21:00 |
| Heidenheim - VfL Osnabruck | 1 | 1.64 | -9.21% | 08 Aug 13:00 |
| Aarhus Fremad - HB Køge | 1 | 1.68 | -7.35% | 08 Aug 14:00 |
| Harrogate Town - Solihull Moors | 1 | 1.62 | -9.21% | 08 Aug 16:00 |
| Tondela - Amarante | 1 | 1.68 | -9.21% | 08 Aug 19:00 |
| Rotor Volgograd - FK Chelyabinsk | 1 | 1.71 | -9.21% | 09 Aug 17:30 |