Quilmes – Almagro

Model: TIPPSH

Quilmes vs Almagro

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.69
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 10, 2026 12:00 AM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 3d 20h
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -8.30% · n=180
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 13m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Quilmes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: QuilmesGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.078 | A: 0.095

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

3/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.60First seen
Current1.69Now
Max odds1.69Highest point
Min odds1.57Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

QuilmesHOME
VS
AlmagroAWAY
WDLLW
Recent form
LDWLW
Avg goals scored
1.40
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.20
1.40
Shots on target for
5.00
2.00
SoT conceded pressure
2.80
2.80
Home splitW-L-W-W-W1.40 scored / 0.40 conceded
Away splitW-L-D-L-W1.00 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.69. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -8.30% based on n=180 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Argentina Nacional B (ar). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.69
V2 BandNONEROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 BandNONEROI -8.30% · n=180
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The market is strongly leaning toward Quilmes, but the statistical edge looks less pronounced. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence. Quilmes is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 23.2% 7D: 34.8% 15D: 8.5% 30D: 13.1%
Model insight

Quilmes – Almagro Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.69. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -9.21% and -8.30%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample298
Win Rate59.4%
Profit-0.48u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINPenarol - Montevideo Wanderers1.71-9.21%
LOSSMylliem SC - Laitkor SC1.65-9.21%
LOSSVJS Vantaa - PK Keski-Uusimaa1.71-7.35%
WINLanzhou Longyuan Athletic - Beijing Institute1.66-7.35%
WINGornik Leczna - KKS 1925 Kalisz1.63-4.66%
WINGKS Tychy 71 - Zaglebie Sosnowiec1.69-9.21%
WINUNA Strassen - Victoria Rosport1.72-10.11%
WINHammarby TFF - FC Arlanda1.63-7.35%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Logan Lightning - Capalaba FC11.63-7.35%05 Jun 12:30
Guijuelo - CDA Palencia11.70-9.21%07 Jun 18:00
Shamrock Rovers - Dundalk11.66-4.66%07 Aug 21:00
Heidenheim - VfL Osnabruck11.64-9.21%08 Aug 13:00
Aarhus Fremad - HB Køge11.68-7.35%08 Aug 14:00
Harrogate Town - Solihull Moors11.62-9.21%08 Aug 16:00
Tondela - Amarante11.68-9.21%08 Aug 19:00
Rotor Volgograd - FK Chelyabinsk11.71-9.21%09 Aug 17:30
Pick
1 @ 1.69
Kickoff
Ago 10, 2026 12:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -9.21% • n=1970
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-8.30% • n=180
Start
Starts in 3d 20h
Updated
Updated 13m ago
Torna in alto