Dinamo Samarqand – Xorazm Urganch

Model: TIPPSH

Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm Urganch

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.05
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 14, 2026 7:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 2
StartStarted 1d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 11h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Dinamo Samarqand. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Dinamo SamarqandGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.008 | A: 0.045

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

37/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.95First seen
Current2.05Now
Max odds2.05Highest point
Min odds1.76Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Dinamo SamarqandHOME
VS
Xorazm UrganchAWAY
DLDWW
Recent form
DWLWL
Avg goals scored
1.60
1.40
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.80
Shots on target for
6.80
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
4.60
8.20
Home splitD-D-W-L-W2.00 scored / 1.60 conceded
Away splitD-L-L-L-W1.00 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.05. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uzbekistan PFL (uz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.05
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Dinamo Samarqand has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: -19.4% 7D: 2.8% 15D: 10.2% 30D: 8.3%
Model insight

Dinamo Samarqand – Xorazm Urganch Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.05. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.37% and 3.37%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample369
Win Rate48.0%
Profit-13.57u
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LOSSRostov - Rubin Kazan2.203.37%
LOSSAl Taawon Buraidah - Al Khaleej Saihat1.803.37%
WINNorrby IF - Orebro SK2.263.15%
WINKairat Almaty (W) - Kaisar Kyzylorda (W)1.963.37%
LOSSFC Spartak Velka Bites - TJ Tatran Bohunice2.253.15%
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Pick
1 @ 2.05
Kickoff
Ago 14, 2026 7:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.37% • n=795
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.37% • n=795
Start
Started 1d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 11h ago
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