Model: TIPPSA

Rhyl vs Caersws

PREDICTION

@ 2.70

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 15, 2026 5:30 PM

ResultLOSS4 - 2

StartStarted 18h 58m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.84% · n=717

V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -2.09% · n=286

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 21h 2m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Caersws. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CaerswsGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.064 | A: 0.076

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

25/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.78First seen

Current2.71Now

Max odds2.78Highest point

Min odds2.71Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

RhylHOME

CaerswsAWAY

WLDLL

Recent form

LWDWW

Avg goals scored

1.40

2.80

Defensive weakness

1.80

1.60

Shots on target for

4.40

6.80

SoT conceded pressure

5.00

4.60

Home splitW-D-L-W-L1.80 scored / 1.60 conceded

Away splitL-D-L-W1.75 scored / 2.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.70. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -2.09% based on n=286 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Championship North (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.70

V2 BandLOWROI 0.84% · n=717

V4 BandNONEROI -2.09% · n=286

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Caersws shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Caersws has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -14.1% 7D: -11.2% 15D: 6.7% 30D: 5.9%

Model insight

Rhyl – Caersws Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.70. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.84% across 717 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -2.09% across 286 historical samples. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample37

Win Rate40.5%

Profit+1.94u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Portadown - Dungannon Swifts	2.47	0.84%
LOSS	BATE Borisov - FC Vitebsk	2.45	0.84%
WIN	Avai - CRB	2.74	0.84%
WIN	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Union Omaha	2.58	0.84%
LOSS	Dundee - Aberdeen	2.61	0.84%
WIN	Yeoju - Dangjin Citizen FC	2.49	0.84%
WIN	North Carolina Courage (W) - Utah Royals (W)	2.71	0.84%
LOSS	Jeonnam Dragons - Gyeongnam FC	2.66	0.84%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Sarmiento - Huracan	2	2.68	0.84%	16 Aug 20:00

Pick

2 @ 2.70

Kickoff

Ago 15, 2026 5:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 0.84% • n=717

Confidence V4

CONF V4: NONE

Exp. ROI V4

-2.09% • n=286

Start

Started 18h 58m ago

Updated

Updated 21h 2m ago