Model: TIPPSA

Crawley Town vs Crewe

PREDICTION

@ 2.59

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 15, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultWIN0 - 1

StartStarted 1d 2h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Crewe. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CreweGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.012 | A: 0.041

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

46/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.75First seen

Current2.63Now

Max odds2.78Highest point

Min odds2.63Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Crawley TownHOME

CreweAWAY

LLWLL

Recent form

WWDLW

Avg goals scored

0.60

1.40

Defensive weakness

1.20

0.60

Shots on target for

3.20

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

6.80

2.80

Home splitL-L-D-D-L0.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitW-D-W-W-L1.40 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.59. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.13% based on n=261 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England League 2 (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.59

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Crewe shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -18.4% 7D: -21.1% 15D: 1.4% 30D: 4.3%

Model insight

Crawley Town – Crewe Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.59. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.13% and 4.13%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample151

Win Rate43.0%

Profit+14.11u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	JK Viljandi Tulevik - FC Levadia Tallinn U19	2.80	4.96%
WIN	Sportivo Trinidense (W) - Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)	2.54	4.13%
LOSS	Orlando City SC - FC Cincinnati	2.72	3.59%
WIN	FC Utrecht - AZ	2.47	3.59%
LOSS	CA Brown de Adrogue U20 - Estudiantes de Buenos Aires U20	2.64	3.59%
LOSS	Arkonia Szczecin U19 - Gornik Zabrze U19	2.39	4.13%
LOSS	FC ML Vitebsk - Borac Banja Luka	2.70	3.43%
WIN	SV Ried - Rapid Vienna	2.40	4.13%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN	2	2.70	3.31%	30 Apr 02:30
SD Aucas - LDU Quito	2	2.65	3.59%	17 Aug 02:00

Pick

2 @ 2.59

Kickoff

Ago 15, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.13% • n=261

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.13% • n=261

Start

Started 1d 2h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 4h ago