Model: TIPPSH
Ceara vs Avai
PREDICTION
1
@ 1.88
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 11, 2026 3:00 AM
ResultWIN2 - 1
StartStarted 54d 8h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.63% · n=470
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 54d 10h ago
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Ceara. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: CearaGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
29/100
Odds Movement
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.73First seen
Current1.88Now
Max odds1.88Highest point
Min odds1.73Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
CearaHOME
VS
AvaiAWAY
WLLWW
Recent form
LLWLW
Avg goals scored
1.60
1.60
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.40
Shots on target for
5.40
3.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
4.40
Home splitW-L-W-W-L1.40 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitL-L-D-L-W1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.88. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.63% based on n=470 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.
Pick1
Odd1.88
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandLOWROI 1.63% · n=470
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh
AI Match Insight
The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Ceara. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Ceara is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -10.8%
7D: -3.3%
15D: -1.2%
30D: 12.0%
Model insight
Ceara – Avai Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.88. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.04% and 1.63%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample435
Win Rate48.0%
Profit-32.33u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Lillestrøm 2 - Kongsvinger 2 | 1.92 | 1.31% |
| WIN | Torque Reserves - Deportivo Maldonado Reserves | 1.99 | 1.04% |
| WIN | St Louis City II - Real Monarchs SLC | 1.83 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Real Frontera - Atletico El Vigia | 2.04 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Bollstanäs SK - IK Franke | 2.10 | 1.31% |
| WIN | South Melbourne U23 - St Albans Saints U23 | 1.76 | 1.31% |
| WIN | Rapid Vienna - SCR Altach | 1.78 | 1.04% |
| WIN | Reipas - PPJ | 1.85 | 1.04% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield Reserves - Racing Club Reserves | 1 | 1.99 | 1.31% | 05 Jul 16:00 |
| RTC FC - Thimphu FC | 1 | 1.77 | 1.04% | 04 Aug 11:00 |
| Dynamo Makhachkala - Krylia Sovetov | 1 | 2.08 | 1.04% | 04 Aug 17:30 |
| Academia de Balompie Boliviano - Real Oruro | 1 | 2.05 | 1.04% | 04 Aug 21:00 |
| Llaneros - Fortaleza CEIF | 1 | 2.11 | 1.31% | 04 Aug 23:10 |
| FC Cincinnati - Pachuca | 1 | 2.07 | 1.04% | 05 Aug 01:45 |
| Quilmes - Gimnasia Jujuy | 1 | 1.94 | 1.04% | 06 Aug 01:00 |
| El Paso Locomotive FC - Monterey Bay FC | 1 | 1.78 | 1.04% | 06 Aug 03:00 |
Pick
1 @ 1.88
Kickoff
Giu 11, 2026 3:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.63% • n=470
Start
Started 54d 8h ago
Updated
Updated 54d 10h ago