Cittadella – US Pergolettese

Model: TIPPSH

Cittadella vs US Pergolettese

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.67
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 22, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 22h 45m
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 4m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Cittadella. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CittadellaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.074 | A: 0.171

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

3/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.53First seen
Current1.67Now
Max odds1.71Highest point
Min odds1.53Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CittadellaHOME
VS
US PergoletteseAWAY
DWLDW
Recent form
DDWWD
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.00
0.20
Shots on target for
5.00
2.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
4.80
Home splitD-W-L-D-W1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitD-D-L0.33 scored / 1.33 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.67. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -9.21% based on n=1970 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Group A (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.67
V2 BandNONEROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current price indicates market confidence, even if recent form does not show an overwhelming gap. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Cittadella has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 24.4% 7D: 20.6% 15D: 1.9% 30D: 2.7%
Model insight

Cittadella – US Pergolettese Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.67. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -9.21% across 1970 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample397
Win Rate61.5%
Profit+12.45u
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ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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WINFK Liepaja - SC Grobinas1.63-7.35%
LOSSMohun Bagan SG - Northeast United1.66-9.21%
WINGrindavik/Njardvik (W) - Fram Reykjavik (W)1.69-9.21%
WINReal Oviedo B - Caudal1.72-7.35%
WINClub Sport Colombia - Presidente Hayes1.69-9.21%
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Pick
1 @ 1.67
Kickoff
Ago 22, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -9.21% • n=1970
Start
Starts in 22h 45m
Updated
Updated 4m ago
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