Model: TIPPSH

Girona vs CD Alaves

PREDICTION

@ 2.45

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 25, 2026 12:30 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 2h 46m

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 7m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Girona. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: GironaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.074 | A: 0.001

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

38/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.75First seen

Current2.45Now

Max odds2.75Highest point

Min odds2.43Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

GironaHOME

CD AlavesAWAY

WDLDD

Recent form

DLWWD

Avg goals scored

1.20

1.00

Defensive weakness

1.00

0.80

Shots on target for

7.60

5.20

SoT conceded pressure

3.00

2.80

Home splitD-D-L-L-W1.00 scored / 1.20 conceded

Away splitW-D-L-D1.50 scored / 1.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.45. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.45

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Girona. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Girona has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 22.9% 7D: 38.3% 15D: 19.8% 30D: 24.8%

Model insight

Girona – CD Alaves Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.45. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample93

Win Rate46.2%

Profit+9.23u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Green Gully U23 - Dandenong City U23	2.22	3.37%
LOSS	Chester - Stoke U21	2.36	3.15%
WIN	Crusaders - Glenavon	2.41	2.49%
LOSS	Hammarby - Anderlecht	2.49	2.49%
LOSS	Dynamo Kiev - PAOK Salonika	2.54	2.49%
LOSS	Cuiaba - Atletico GO	2.26	2.49%
WIN	Belgrano - Rosario Central	2.52	2.49%
LOSS	North Sunshine Eagles - Eltham Redbacks	2.46	2.49%

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Pick

1 @ 2.45

Kickoff

Lug 25, 2026 12:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

2.49% • n=1025

Start

Starts in 2h 46m

Updated

Updated 7m ago