Model: TIPPSH

Gremio vs Sao Paulo

PREDICTION

@ 2.33

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 08, 2026 11:00 PM

ResultWIN2 - 1

StartStarted 6h 29m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.59% · n=2341

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 8h 53m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Gremio. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: GremioGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.013 | A: 0.005

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

34/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.45First seen

Current2.40Now

Max odds2.47Highest point

Min odds2.38Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

GremioHOME

Sao PauloAWAY

WWDLD

Recent form

LDLLW

Avg goals scored

1.00

Defensive weakness

0.80

1.20

Shots on target for

5.40

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

3.20

Home splitW-W-L-D-L1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-D-L-L-L0.80 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.33. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.59% based on n=2341 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie A (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.33

V2 BandLOWROI 1.59% · n=2341

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Gremio. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Gremio's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 1.2% 7D: 24.2% 15D: 6.1% 30D: 12.8%

Model insight

Gremio – Sao Paulo Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.33. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.59% across 2341 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample305

Win Rate44.6%

Profit+0.57u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	MKS Kluczbork - Gornik Polkowice	2.30	1.59%
LOSS	KF Fjallabyggd - KV Vesturbaer	2.57	1.59%
LOSS	Aveley - Eastbourne Borough	2.10	1.31%
WIN	Vasas SC - Zalaegerszegi TE	2.33	1.59%
LOSS	Minas Boca U20 - EC Villa Real U20	2.45	1.41%
WIN	SK 1923 Gabcikovo - FC Banik Prievidza	2.18	1.31%
LOSS	Ursus Warsawa - MKS Piaseczno	2.26	1.59%
LOSS	Honiara City FC - Malaita Kingz	2.32	1.59%

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Pick

1 @ 2.33

Kickoff

Ago 08, 2026 11:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.59% • n=2341

Start

Started 6h 29m ago

Updated

Updated 8h 53m ago