Model: TIPPSH

Parnu JK Vaprus II vs JK Tammeka Tartu II

PREDICTION

@ 1.87

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 03, 2026 1:30 PM

ResultWIN7 - 2

StartStarted 70d 7h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 70d 13h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Parnu JK Vaprus II. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Parnu JK Vaprus II

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

40/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.90First seen

Current2.02Now

Max odds2.02Highest point

Min odds1.90Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Parnu JK Vaprus IIHOME

JK Tammeka Tartu IIAWAY

WWLDW

Recent form

LWLLW

Avg goals scored

3.20

1.80

Defensive weakness

2.20

3.00

Shots on target for

8.40

6.00

SoT conceded pressure

4.60

9.00

Home splitW-D-W3.67 scored / 1.33 conceded

Away splitL-L-W1.67 scored / 4.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.87. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.86% based on n=299 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Estonia Esiliiga B (ee). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.87

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=299

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=299

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Parnu JK Vaprus II is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -15.1% 7D: -13.1% 15D: -2.7% 30D: 12.3%

Model insight

Parnu JK Vaprus II – JK Tammeka Tartu II Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.87. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample288

Win Rate51.7%

Profit-1.76u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Wexford FC - Kerry FC	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Alamein FC (W) - Preston Lions (W)	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Houston FC - Hill Country Lobos	1.85	3.37%
WIN	Beijing Guoan - Shandong Taishan	1.78	3.37%
WIN	FK Jelgava - SC Grobinas	2.05	3.37%
LOSS	Jecheon Citizen - Gijang United	1.88	3.37%
WIN	Internacional U20 - Gremio U20	1.99	3.37%
LOSS	Paysandu - Santa Cruz FC	1.81	3.37%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz	1	1.98	4.86%	09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina	1	1.93	2.30%	10 May 19:00

Pick

1 @ 1.87

Kickoff

Mag 03, 2026 1:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=299

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.86% • n=299

Start

Started 70d 7h ago

Updated

Updated 70d 13h ago