Stabaek (W) – Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Model: TipTromba35H

Stabaek (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.00
StatusUpcoming
KickoffGiu 28, 2026 4:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 1d 11h
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.85% · n=519
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.61% · n=186
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 13m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Stabaek (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Stabaek (W)

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

58/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.00First seen
Current3.14Now
Max odds3.14Highest point
Min odds3.00Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Stabaek (W)HOME
VS
Fortuna Aalesund (W)AWAY
LWWWW
Recent form
WWWLW
Avg goals scored
2.00
3.40
Defensive weakness
1.00
1.20
Shots on target for
4.60
5.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
4.40
Home splitL-W-W-L-D1.20 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitW-W-W-W-W3.40 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.00. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.61% based on n=186 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Norway Cup Women (no). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.00
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.85% · n=519
V4 BandHIGHROI 6.61% · n=186
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: 133.3% 7D: -11.8% 15D: -2.3% 30D: -2.3%
Model insight

Stabaek (W) – Fortuna Aalesund (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.00. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba35H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.85% across 519 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.61% across 186 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Active Similar Predictions
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Pick
1 @ 3.00
Kickoff
Giu 28, 2026 4:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.85% • n=519
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
6.61% • n=186
Start
Starts in 1d 11h
Updated
Updated 13m ago
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