Stabaek (W) – Fortuna Aalesund (W)

Model: TIPPSH

Stabaek (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.00
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 28, 2026 4:00 PM
ResultLOSS3 - 4
StartStarted 45d 2h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.53% · n=669
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 45d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Stabaek (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Stabaek (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

51/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.00First seen
Current3.25Now
Max odds3.80Highest point
Min odds2.75Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Stabaek (W)HOME
VS
Fortuna Aalesund (W)AWAY
LLWWW
Recent form
WWWWL
Avg goals scored
2.00
3.60
Defensive weakness
1.80
1.40
Shots on target for
4.60
5.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
4.40
Home splitL-L-W-W-L1.80 scored / 1.60 conceded
Away splitW-W-W-W-W3.60 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.00. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.53% based on n=669 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Norway Cup Women (no). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.00
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.53% · n=669
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Stabaek (W). There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: 4.6% 7D: -11.2% 15D: -4.4% 30D: -3.3%
Model insight

Stabaek (W) – Fortuna Aalesund (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.00. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.53% across 669 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample49
Win Rate36.7%
Profit+4.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSMineros - Monagas II2.804.53%
WINKarpaty Lviv - LNZ Lebedyn3.074.53%
WINBury Town - Halesowen2.954.53%
WINVanraure Hachinohe - Kataller Toyama2.934.53%
LOSSOtrant-Olympic Ulcinj - OFK Petrovac2.804.53%
WINFC Rustavi - Torpedo Kutaisi2.904.53%
WINAD Isidro Metapan - CD Aguila2.814.53%
LOSSAlianza - Atletico Bucaramanga2.844.53%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Central Espanol Reserves - Liverpool Montevideo Reserves13.094.53%21 Jul 19:00
Asteras Tripolis - AEK Larnaca12.924.53%12 Aug 18:30
Eintracht Norderstedt - Kickers Emden13.224.53%12 Aug 19:00
Cruzeiro - Flamengo13.124.53%13 Aug 02:30
Oaxaca - Tepatitlan FC13.024.53%14 Aug 03:00
Marseille - Atletico Madrid12.942.79%14 Aug 17:30
Crusaders - Ballymena Utd12.964.53%15 Aug 16:00
KFC Komarno - Dunajska Streda13.194.53%16 Aug 19:00
Pick
1 @ 3.00
Kickoff
Giu 28, 2026 4:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.53% • n=669
Start
Started 45d 2h ago
Updated
Updated 45d 4h ago
Torna in alto