UD Leiria – Benfica B

Model: TIPPSH

UD Leiria vs Benfica B

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.17
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 15, 2026 5:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 3d 9h
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 13m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is UD Leiria. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: UD LeiriaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.106 | A: -0.019

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

30/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.00First seen
Current2.17Now
Max odds2.19Highest point
Min odds2.00Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

UD LeiriaHOME
VS
Benfica BAWAY
LLDLL
Recent form
WWLLW
Avg goals scored
0.80
0.60
Defensive weakness
2.00
0.80
Shots on target for
4.60
3.40
SoT conceded pressure
4.60
4.00
Home splitD-L-W-D1.50 scored / 1.75 conceded
Away splitW-L-W-L-W0.80 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.17. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.17
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. UD Leiria has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 0.2% 7D: 5.9% 15D: 11.3% 30D: 10.9%
Model insight

UD Leiria – Benfica B Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.17. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample476
Win Rate47.7%
Profit+4.50u
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Pick
1 @ 2.17
Kickoff
Ago 15, 2026 5:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Starts in 3d 9h
Updated
Updated 13m ago
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