Model: TIPPSH
FC Merani Tbilisi vs FC Orbi
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.33
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 21, 2026 5:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 49d 10h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.59% · n=2341
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 49d 16h ago
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is FC Merani Tbilisi. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: FC Merani TbilisiGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
34/100
Odds Movement
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.28First seen
Current2.33Now
Max odds2.33Highest point
Min odds2.25Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
FC Merani TbilisiHOME
VS
FC OrbiAWAY
DWLWD
Recent form
DLLWL
Avg goals scored
0.80
0.80
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.40
Shots on target for
2.80
2.00
SoT conceded pressure
1.80
3.60
Home splitD-L-D-W-W1.00 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitD-W-D-L-W1.40 scored / 1.20 conceded
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.33. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.59% based on n=2341 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Georgia Liga 3 (ge). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.
Pick1
Odd2.33
V2 BandLOWROI 1.59% · n=2341
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium
AI Match Insight
The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.
Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -21.8%
7D: -0.9%
15D: -4.4%
30D: 3.4%
Model insight
FC Merani Tbilisi – FC Orbi Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.33. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.59% across 2341 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample321
Win Rate44.9%
Profit+2.46u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Planalto EC (W) - Pantanal (W) | 2.12 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Huachipato (W) - Palestino (W) | 2.37 | 1.59% |
| LOSS | JS Hercules - SJK Akatemia II | 2.32 | 1.59% |
| WIN | Alemannia Aachen - Verl | 2.17 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | FC Probiy Horodenka - FC Chernigiv | 2.22 | 1.04% |
| LOSS | Santos - Athletico Paranaense | 2.16 | 1.31% |
| LOSS | Futuro FC - Puente Alto | 2.15 | 1.31% |
| LOSS | KA Akureyri - FH Hafnarfjordur | 2.10 | 1.31% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star - Logan Lightning | 1 | 2.55 | 1.59% | 23 May 09:00 |
| Santiago Wanderers - Union Espanola | 1 | 2.17 | 1.04% | 30 May 18:30 |
| Boca Juniors Reserves - River Plate Reserves | 1 | 2.40 | 1.59% | 05 Jul 19:00 |
| Birmingham Legion FC - New Mexico United | 1 | 2.17 | 1.04% | 27 Jul 01:00 |
| Argentinos Jrs - Racing Club | 1 | 2.11 | 1.04% | 10 Aug 01:15 |
| Apia L Tigers - Sydney United 58 | 1 | 2.17 | 1.04% | 12 Aug 11:30 |
| Deportivo Recoleta - 2 de Mayo | 1 | 2.43 | 1.59% | 14 Aug 23:30 |
| Sao Bernardo SP - Botafogo SP | 1 | 2.30 | 1.59% | 15 Aug 00:30 |
Pick
1 @ 2.33
Kickoff
Giu 21, 2026 5:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.59% • n=2341
Start
Started 49d 10h ago
Updated
Updated 49d 16h ago