Model: TIPPSH

Tamworth vs Aston Villa U21

PREDICTION

@ 1.69

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 21, 2026 10:45 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 2

StartStarted 1d 1h ago

V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -9.21% · n=1970

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 3h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Tamworth. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: TamworthGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

3/100

Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.67First seen

Current1.69Now

Max odds1.69Highest point

Min odds1.67Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

TamworthHOME

Aston Villa U21AWAY

LLWWW

Recent form

WLDWL

Avg goals scored

2.40

1.60

Defensive weakness

2.20

1.80

Shots on target for

9.40

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

3.80

Home splitL-W-W-L-W1.80 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitW-D-W-W-D1.60 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.69. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -9.21% based on n=1970 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.69

V2 BandNONEROI -9.21% · n=1970

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Market expectations and recent results both point toward Tamworth as the more reliable side. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Tamworth is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 37.6% 7D: 30.7% 15D: 21.7% 30D: 23.5%

Model insight

Tamworth – Aston Villa U21 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.69. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -9.21% across 1970 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample226

Win Rate58.4%

Profit-4.30u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Terengganu U20 - Penang U20	1.63	-7.35%
WIN	Nottm Forest - Blackburn	1.74	-6.04%
LOSS	Stranraer - FC Edinburgh	1.63	-9.21%
WIN	Hanworth Villa - Kingstonian	1.67	-4.66%
WIN	East Fife - Linlithgow Rose	1.68	-9.21%
LOSS	ABB U19 - The Strongest U19	1.63	-9.21%
WIN	Suduva Marijampole - Hegelmann Litauen	1.71	-9.21%
LOSS	Japan Soccer College - Artista Asama	1.71	-6.04%

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Pick

1 @ 1.69

Kickoff

Lug 21, 2026 10:45 PM

Confidence

CONF: NONE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI -9.21% • n=1970

Start

Started 1d 1h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 3h ago