LDU Quito (W) – Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

Model: TIPPSH

LDU Quito (W) vs Barcelona Guayaquil (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.72
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 25, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultWIN2 - 0
StartStarted 15h 22m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -4.66% · n=356
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -4.66% · n=356
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 20h 24m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is LDU Quito (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LDU Quito (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: 0.160 | A: 0.059

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

5/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.62First seen
Current1.72Now
Max odds1.72Highest point
Min odds1.62Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LDU Quito (W)HOME
VS
Barcelona Guayaquil (W)AWAY
WWWWW
Recent form
LWDWW
Avg goals scored
5.20
1.80
Defensive weakness
0.20
0.80
Shots on target for
9.60
4.40
SoT conceded pressure
4.20
6.20
Home splitW-W-W-W-W3.40 scored / 0.20 conceded
Away splitL-W-W-W-W2.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.72. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -4.66% based on n=356 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Ecuador Primera Women (ec). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.72
V2 BandNONEROI -4.66% · n=356
V4 BandNONEROI -4.66% · n=356
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The market strongly favors LDU Quito (W), and recent form broadly confirms the direction of the price. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. LDU Quito (W) is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: -7.5% 7D: 24.6% 15D: 14.8% 30D: 21.5%
Model insight

LDU Quito (W) – Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.72. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -4.66% and -4.66%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample244
Win Rate57.8%
Profit-7.07u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINPalmerston Rovers FC - Garuda FC1.66-9.21%
WINHouston Dynamo - Austin FC1.74-4.66%
LOSSIsloch - FC Baranovichi1.74-7.35%
LOSSZawisza Bydgoszcz - Sokol Kleczew1.69-9.21%
WINSporting - Monaco1.65-9.21%
LOSSLaval - Concarneau1.75-9.21%
WINAlianza Atletico - CD Los Chankas1.68-7.35%
WINFC Fredericia - HB Køge1.62-9.21%
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Pick
1 @ 1.72
Kickoff
Lug 25, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -4.66% • n=356
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-4.66% • n=356
Start
Started 15h 22m ago
Updated
Updated 20h 24m ago
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