Model: TIPPSH

Lens vs Villarreal

PREDICTION

@ 2.10

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 01, 2026 10:00 PM

ResultWIN3 - 1

StartStarted 1d 22h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.63% · n=470

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d 1h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Lens. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LensGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.045 | A: 0.042

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

32/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.72First seen

Current2.17Now

Max odds2.72Highest point

Min odds2.15Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LensHOME

VillarrealAWAY

WDWWL

Recent form

LWLWL

Avg goals scored

2.40

1.80

Defensive weakness

1.20

1.80

Shots on target for

6.40

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

4.80

Home splitW-D-W-L-W1.80 scored / 1.20 conceded

Away splitL-W-L-L-D1.00 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.10. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.63% based on n=470 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Elite Club Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.10

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438

V4 BandLOWROI 1.63% · n=470

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Lens has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: 30.9% 7D: 3.9% 15D: 12.3% 30D: 9.4%

Model insight

Lens – Villarreal Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.10. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.04% and 1.63%. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample445

Win Rate46.5%

Profit-17.16u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Lillestrøm 2 - Kongsvinger 2	1.92	1.31%
WIN	Torque Reserves - Deportivo Maldonado Reserves	1.99	1.04%
LOSS	Real Frontera - Atletico El Vigia	2.04	1.04%
LOSS	Bollstanäs SK - IK Franke	2.10	1.31%
WIN	Aragua - Bolivar SC	2.30	1.59%
WIN	Reipas - PPJ	1.85	1.04%
WIN	Spartak Pleven - Marek Dupnitsa	2.22	1.04%
WIN	Sunderland - Wrexham	1.92	1.04%

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Pick

1 @ 2.10

Kickoff

Ago 01, 2026 10:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.63% • n=470

Start

Started 1d 22h ago

Updated

Updated 2d 1h ago