Tondela – Amarante

Model: TIPPSH

Tondela vs Amarante

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.66
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 08, 2026 9:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2d 19h
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 12m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Tondela. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: TondelaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.039 | A: 0.049

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

3/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.49First seen
Current1.66Now
Max odds1.70Highest point
Min odds1.49Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

TondelaHOME
VS
AmaranteAWAY
LLLWW
Recent form
LWWDD
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.00
Shots on target for
3.60
3.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
5.00
Home splitW-L-D1.33 scored / 1.33 conceded
Away splitL-W-D-W-D1.60 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.66. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -9.21% based on n=1970 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.66
V2 BandNONEROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market is strongly leaning toward Tondela, but the statistical edge looks less pronounced. If considered, this pick should be approached with caution due to the limited historical confidence.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 25.7% 7D: 20.2% 15D: 6.1% 30D: 11.6%
Model insight

Tondela – Amarante Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.66. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -9.21% across 1970 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample297
Win Rate59.3%
Profit-1.19u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSMylliem SC - Laitkor SC1.65-9.21%
LOSSVJS Vantaa - PK Keski-Uusimaa1.71-7.35%
WINLanzhou Longyuan Athletic - Beijing Institute1.66-7.35%
WINGornik Leczna - KKS 1925 Kalisz1.63-4.66%
WINGKS Tychy 71 - Zaglebie Sosnowiec1.69-9.21%
WINUNA Strassen - Victoria Rosport1.72-10.11%
WINHammarby TFF - FC Arlanda1.63-7.35%
WINOlimpia Asuncion - Rubio Nu1.75-9.21%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Logan Lightning - Capalaba FC11.63-7.35%05 Jun 12:30
Guijuelo - CDA Palencia11.70-9.21%07 Jun 18:00
Penarol - Montevideo Wanderers11.71-9.21%06 Aug 01:00
Shamrock Rovers - Dundalk11.66-4.66%07 Aug 21:00
Heidenheim - VfL Osnabruck11.64-9.21%08 Aug 13:00
Aarhus Fremad - HB Køge11.68-7.35%08 Aug 14:00
Harrogate Town - Solihull Moors11.62-9.21%08 Aug 16:00
Rotor Volgograd - FK Chelyabinsk11.71-9.21%09 Aug 17:30
Pick
1 @ 1.66
Kickoff
Ago 08, 2026 9:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -9.21% • n=1970
Start
Starts in 2d 19h
Updated
Updated 12m ago
Torna in alto