Penarol – Montevideo Wanderers

Model: TIPPSH

Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.71
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 06, 2026 3:00 AM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 1h 21m
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 42m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Penarol. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: PenarolGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.177 | A: 0.190

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

3/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.62First seen
Current1.71Now
Max odds1.71Highest point
Min odds1.58Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

PenarolHOME
VS
Montevideo WanderersAWAY
WWDWL
Recent form
WWWDW
Avg goals scored
1.60
2.20
Defensive weakness
0.40
0.60
Shots on target for
4.00
4.20
SoT conceded pressure
2.40
3.80
Home splitW-W-L-L-D1.40 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitW-W-W-D-L2.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.71. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -9.21% based on n=1970 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Uruguay Torneo Intermedio (uy). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.71
V2 BandNONEROI -9.21% · n=1970
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The market is strongly leaning toward Penarol, but the statistical edge looks less pronounced. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 23.2% 7D: 34.6% 15D: 8.0% 30D: 13.1%
Model insight

Penarol – Montevideo Wanderers Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.71. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -9.21% across 1970 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample297
Win Rate59.3%
Profit-1.19u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSMylliem SC - Laitkor SC1.65-9.21%
LOSSVJS Vantaa - PK Keski-Uusimaa1.71-7.35%
WINLanzhou Longyuan Athletic - Beijing Institute1.66-7.35%
WINGornik Leczna - KKS 1925 Kalisz1.63-4.66%
WINGKS Tychy 71 - Zaglebie Sosnowiec1.69-9.21%
WINUNA Strassen - Victoria Rosport1.72-10.11%
WINHammarby TFF - FC Arlanda1.63-7.35%
WINOlimpia Asuncion - Rubio Nu1.75-9.21%
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Pick
1 @ 1.71
Kickoff
Ago 06, 2026 3:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -9.21% • n=1970
Start
Starts in 1h 21m
Updated
Updated 42m ago
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