Model: TIPPSH

Navalcarnero vs Torrejon

PREDICTION

@ 1.68

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 19, 2026 10:00 PM

ResultWIN1 - 0

StartStarted 1d 3h ago

V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -7.35% · n=1010

V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -7.35% · n=1010

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 7h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Navalcarnero. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: NavalcarneroGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.113 | A: -0.058

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

3/100

Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.67First seen

Current1.68Now

Max odds1.68Highest point

Min odds1.67Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

NavalcarneroHOME

TorrejonAWAY

WWWDW

Recent form

LWDLL

Avg goals scored

2.20

0.40

Defensive weakness

0.40

1.20

Shots on target for

6.00

3.00

SoT conceded pressure

3.20

3.40

Home splitW-W-W-W-L2.60 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitL-W-L-W-W1.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.68. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -7.35% based on n=1010 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain Copa Federacion (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.68

V2 BandNONEROI -7.35% · n=1010

V4 BandNONEROI -7.35% · n=1010

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Market expectations and recent results both point toward Navalcarnero as the more reliable side. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Navalcarnero is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 45.5% 7D: -6.5% 15D: -1.2% 30D: 3.0%

Model insight

Navalcarnero – Torrejon Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.68. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -7.35% and -7.35%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample389

Win Rate61.4%

Profit+12.24u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Mohun Bagan SG - Northeast United	1.66	-9.21%
WIN	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) - Fram Reykjavik (W)	1.69	-9.21%
WIN	Real Oviedo B - Caudal	1.72	-7.35%
WIN	Club Sport Colombia - Presidente Hayes	1.69	-9.21%
LOSS	UMF Selfoss - Kari	1.68	-9.21%
LOSS	Nairn County - Lossiemouth	1.63	-7.35%
LOSS	CD Marathon - Alianza FC	1.65	-9.21%
WIN	New York City FC II - FC Cincinnati II	1.75	-4.66%

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Pick

1 @ 1.68

Kickoff

Ago 19, 2026 10:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: NONE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI -7.35% • n=1010

Confidence V4

CONF V4: NONE

Exp. ROI V4

-7.35% • n=1010

Start

Started 1d 3h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 7h ago