Model: TIPPSA

Leioa vs Portugalete

PREDICTION

@ 2.10

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 19, 2026 9:30 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 1

StartStarted 2d 4h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.76% · n=65

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.76% · n=65

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 2d 6h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Portugalete. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: PortugaleteGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.327 | A: 0.117

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

32/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.25First seen

Current2.20Now

Max odds2.25Highest point

Min odds2.19Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LeioaHOME

PortugaleteAWAY

DLLLL

Recent form

DWWWL

Avg goals scored

0.20

1.60

Defensive weakness

3.40

0.60

Shots on target for

1.40

5.20

SoT conceded pressure

7.20

1.40

Home splitD-L-L-W-W0.60 scored / 2.60 conceded

Away splitD-W-L-W-D1.40 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.10. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.76% based on n=65 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.10

V2 BandLOWROI 1.76% · n=65

V4 BandLOWROI 1.76% · n=65

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Portugalete a useful statistical edge. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Portugalete is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: 46.5% 7D: -0.4% 15D: 1.6% 30D: 3.1%

Model insight

Leioa – Portugalete Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.10. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.76% and 1.76%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample124

Win Rate51.6%

Profit+11.93u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Malmo FF (W) - Hammarby (W)	2.10	1.21%
WIN	Ulfarnir - KFR Hvolsvöllur	2.30	0.84%
LOSS	Hapoel Ramat Gan - Beitar Jerusalem	2.33	0.84%
LOSS	Molde 2 - Rosenborg 2	2.09	1.76%
LOSS	St Mochtas - Malahide Utd	2.20	1.21%
LOSS	Wenzhou FC - Shenzhen 2028	2.03	1.21%
LOSS	Pors Grenland - Bjarg	2.20	1.21%
WIN	Moggill - Newmarket	2.06	1.21%

Pick

2 @ 2.10

Kickoff

Ago 19, 2026 9:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.76% • n=65

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.76% • n=65

Start

Started 2d 4h ago

Updated

Updated 2d 6h ago