Afan Lido – Pontardawe Town

Model: TIPPSH

Afan Lido vs Pontardawe Town

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.63
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 21, 2026 10:30 PM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 1d 7h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -7.35% · n=1010
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -7.35% · n=1010
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 2d 1h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Afan Lido. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Afan LidoGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.020 | A: -0.047

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

2/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.40First seen
Current1.63Now
Max odds1.65Highest point
Min odds1.40Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Afan LidoHOME
VS
Pontardawe TownAWAY
WLWLL
Recent form
LLLWL
Avg goals scored
2.00
1.00
Defensive weakness
2.00
2.60
Shots on target for
5.80
6.00
SoT conceded pressure
6.80
7.60
Home splitW-W-L-W3.00 scored / 1.50 conceded
Away splitL-L-L0.67 scored / 3.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.63. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -7.35% based on n=1010 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Wales Championship South (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.63
V2 BandNONEROI -7.35% · n=1010
V4 BandNONEROI -7.35% · n=1010
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The short price is supported by recent form data, with Afan Lido showing a clearer performance edge. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 22.1% 7D: 6.8% 15D: 0.3% 30D: 3.4%
Model insight

Afan Lido – Pontardawe Town Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.63. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -7.35% and -7.35%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample414
Win Rate61.6%
Profit+13.73u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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WINAntigua GFC - CSD Comunicaciones1.65-9.21%
WINAKS SMS Lodz - Orzel Parzeczew1.62-9.21%
LOSSSouth Coast Flame FC - Gladesville Ryde Magic1.73-9.21%
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Pick
1 @ 1.63
Kickoff
Ago 21, 2026 10:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -7.35% • n=1010
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-7.35% • n=1010
Start
Started 1d 7h ago
Updated
Updated 2d 1h ago
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