BFC Daugavpils – SK Super Nova

Model: TIPPSH

BFC Daugavpils vs SK Super Nova

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.04
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 16, 2026 7:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 0
StartStarted 47d 16h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 47d 23h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is BFC Daugavpils. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: BFC DaugavpilsGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

29/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.94First seen
Current2.05Now
Max odds2.19Highest point
Min odds1.91Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

BFC DaugavpilsHOME
VS
SK Super NovaAWAY
DDDLW
Recent form
DLLLW
Avg goals scored
1.00
0.80
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.40
Shots on target for
5.20
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
4.20
4.20
Home splitD-L-W-L-L0.80 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitD-L-L-W-L0.60 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.04. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Latvia Virsliga (lv). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.04
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives BFC Daugavpils a useful statistical edge. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. BFC Daugavpils has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -1.6% 7D: 3.8% 15D: -5.1% 30D: 10.8%
Model insight

BFC Daugavpils – SK Super Nova Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.04. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample479
Win Rate47.4%
Profit-22.06u
Historical Similar Predictions
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WINReipas - PPJ1.851.04%
WINSpartak Pleven - Marek Dupnitsa2.221.04%
WINSunderland - Wrexham1.921.04%
LOSSDarmstadt - Portsmouth1.911.31%
WINLens - Villarreal2.041.04%
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Pick
1 @ 2.04
Kickoff
Giu 16, 2026 7:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 47d 16h ago
Updated
Updated 47d 23h ago
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