Model: TIPPSH

Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy

PREDICTION

@ 1.96

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 22, 2026 1:30 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 0

StartStarted 14h 7m ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=746

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 17h 31m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fagiano Okayama. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Fagiano OkayamaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.113 | A: -0.077

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

28/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.25First seen

Current1.96Now

Max odds2.30Highest point

Min odds1.96Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Fagiano OkayamaHOME

Tokyo VerdyAWAY

DWLLL

Recent form

DLDLD

Avg goals scored

0.60

1.00

Defensive weakness

1.40

1.80

Shots on target for

4.40

2.20

SoT conceded pressure

4.20

4.80

Home splitD-W-W-D-L1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitD-D-W-D-L0.60 scored / 0.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.96. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=746 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Japan J-League (jp). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.96

V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=746

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Fagiano Okayama is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: 36.1% 7D: 8.6% 15D: 1.2% 30D: 3.9%

Model insight

Fagiano Okayama – Tokyo Verdy Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.96. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 746 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample790

Win Rate49.6%

Profit-23.87u

Historical Similar Predictions

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LOSS	CE Bento Goncalves - GE Bage	1.77	1.04%
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WIN	NK Vrhnika - ND Dravinja	2.00	1.31%
WIN	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves - SD Atletico Nacional	1.83	1.31%

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Pick

1 @ 1.96

Kickoff

Ago 22, 2026 1:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=746

Start

Started 14h 7m ago

Updated

Updated 17h 31m ago