Ferrymead Bays vs Nelson Suburbs
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Ferrymead Bays. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: Ferrymead BaysGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.120 | A: -0.042Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.05. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Southern League (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.
AI Match Insight
Recent form does not create a strong separation, making the confidence band especially important here. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.
Ferrymead Bays – Nelson Suburbs Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | ASD Seravezza Calcio - Scandicci | 2.00 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Mawlai SC - Shillong Lajong Reserves | 2.29 | 3.15% |
| LOSS | TuPS - JäPS/47 | 2.28 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | FC Tallinn - JK Nomme United II | 2.30 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Sarasota Paradise - Chattanooga Red Wolves | 2.28 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | FC Grand-Saconnex - FC Schaffhausen | 2.24 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | Cesar Vallejo Reserves - Juventud Cautivo | 2.11 | 3.37% |
| LOSS | FC Gagra - FC Spaeri | 2.30 | 2.49% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz | 1 | 1.98 | 4.86% | 09 May 13:00 |
| FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina | 1 | 1.93 | 2.30% | 10 May 19:00 |
| Dangjin Citizen FC - Yeoju | 1 | 2.02 | 3.37% | 22 Aug 11:00 |
| Tochigi SC - Giravanz Kitakyushu | 1 | 1.94 | 3.37% | 22 Aug 12:00 |
| PEPO - HIFK | 1 | 2.01 | 3.37% | 22 Aug 14:00 |
| Harborough Town - Darlington 1883 | 1 | 1.93 | 3.37% | 22 Aug 16:00 |
| Bury Town - Leamington | 1 | 2.15 | 3.37% | 22 Aug 16:00 |
| Stockton Town - Alfreton Town | 1 | 2.20 | 3.37% | 22 Aug 16:00 |