Navalcarnero – Torrejon

Model: TIPPSH

Navalcarnero vs Torrejon

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.68
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 19, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 26m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -7.35% · n=1010
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -7.35% · n=1010
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 4h 10m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Navalcarnero. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: NavalcarneroGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.113 | A: -0.058

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

3/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.67First seen
Current1.68Now
Max odds1.68Highest point
Min odds1.67Lowest point
VolatilityLowStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

NavalcarneroHOME
VS
TorrejonAWAY
WWWDW
Recent form
LWDLL
Avg goals scored
2.20
0.40
Defensive weakness
0.40
1.20
Shots on target for
6.00
3.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.20
3.40
Home splitW-W-W-W-L2.60 scored / 0.80 conceded
Away splitL-W-L-W-W1.00 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.68. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -7.35% based on n=1010 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Spain Copa Federacion (es). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.68
V2 BandNONEROI -7.35% · n=1010
V4 BandNONEROI -7.35% · n=1010
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The market strongly favors Navalcarnero, and recent form broadly confirms the direction of the price. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Navalcarnero's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: 46.7% 7D: -7.8% 15D: -1.8% 30D: 2.8%
Model insight

Navalcarnero – Torrejon Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.68. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -7.35% and -7.35%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample381
Win Rate61.9%
Profit+15.11u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINReal Oviedo B - Caudal1.72-7.35%
WINClub Sport Colombia - Presidente Hayes1.69-9.21%
LOSSUMF Selfoss - Kari1.68-9.21%
WINWigan - Aston Villa U211.68-9.21%
WINCoquimbo Unido (W) - Huachipato (W)1.63-9.21%
LOSSDinamo Zagreb - Viking FK1.72-9.89%
LOSSMindil Aces - Darwin Olympic1.63-7.35%
LOSSFK Spartak Kostroma - FC Ufa1.70-9.21%
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Pick
1 @ 1.68
Kickoff
Ago 19, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -7.35% • n=1010
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-7.35% • n=1010
Start
Started 26m ago
Updated
Updated 4h 10m ago
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