Model: TIPPSA

Sobradinho U20 vs Capital CF U20

PREDICTION

@ 2.16

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 15, 2026 10:30 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 0

StartStarted 1d 2h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.21% · n=228

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 1d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Capital CF U20. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Capital CF U20Goal/Shots Index — H: 0.019 | A: 0.132

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

31/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.00First seen

Current2.16Now

Max odds2.16Highest point

Min odds2.00Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Sobradinho U20HOME

Capital CF U20AWAY

WLDDW

Recent form

LWDWW

Avg goals scored

1.60

5.20

Defensive weakness

0.60

0.80

Shots on target for

6.20

11.00

SoT conceded pressure

2.80

2.40

Home splitW-L-D-W-L1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitL-D-W-L-W3.40 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.16. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.21% based on n=228 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Campeonato Brasiliense U20 (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.16

V2 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

V4 BandLOWROI 1.21% · n=228

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Capital CF U20 is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.

3D: -18.4% 7D: -12.9% 15D: 6.8% 30D: 6.3%

Model insight

Sobradinho U20 – Capital CF U20 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.16. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.21% and 1.21%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample131

Win Rate52.7%

Profit+16.96u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	SK Beveren - Anderlecht	2.36	0.84%
LOSS	St Mochtas - Malahide Utd	2.20	1.21%
LOSS	Wenzhou FC - Shenzhen 2028	2.03	1.21%
LOSS	Pors Grenland - Bjarg	2.20	1.21%
WIN	Moggill - Newmarket	2.06	1.21%
WIN	Deportes Limache - Universidad de Chile	2.04	1.21%
WIN	Pacos Ferreira - Paredes	2.38	0.84%
LOSS	Puchov - Spartak Myjava	2.39	0.84%

Pick

2 @ 2.16

Kickoff

Ago 15, 2026 10:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 1.21% • n=228

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

1.21% • n=228

Start

Started 1d 2h ago

Updated

Updated 1d 4h ago